Retail media has been primarily framed as a positive story — for retailers, for agencies, for advertisers seeking better targeting and measurement. But not every stakeholder benefits equally. For broadcasters, the rise of retail media represents a structural headwind that warrants serious concern.
Two Threats, Not One
Broadcasters face two distinct retail media-related challenges. The first is budget competition: as brands shift spend toward retail media for performance objectives, some of that money comes from TV budgets. The migration from linear to digital has been underway for years, but retail media accelerates it by offering something TV has never convincingly provided: closed-loop attribution connecting an ad to a transaction.
The second threat is more acute: Amazon Prime Video. With advertising launched in early 2024 across major markets, Amazon has entered connected TV advertising with a distinctive advantage — not just streaming inventory, but streaming inventory powered by verified purchase data. That combination is something no traditional broadcaster can match.
The Prime Video Threat in Numbers
Amazon Prime Video has approximately 200 million subscribers globally. Estimates suggest Prime Video ads could represent a 4–6% incremental headwind to broadcasters’ advertising revenues by 2028 — roughly 1 percentage point of growth per year. In a market where broadcasters are already fighting for stable growth, an additional 1pp annual headwind from a single competitor is material. And unlike linear viewing declines, which are gradual and predictable, Prime Video’s impact could accelerate rapidly as Amazon scales its ad sales operation.
Why Broadcasters Can’t Close the Gap Quickly
For traditional broadcasters, the existential challenge is that they cannot replicate Amazon’s data advantage. A broadcaster can sell advertising inventory against content. Amazon can sell inventory against content and target based on what you bought last week. For a CPG brand choosing between two CTV platforms, that targeting differential is hard to ignore — and it will become harder to ignore over time.