Here’s a number that should stop any media planner in their tracks: retail media is projected to reach $200 billion in annual spend by 2026. More striking still — it’s on course to overtake total TV advertising as early as 2025.
That’s not a niche prediction from a bullish industry body. It’s a consensus view emerging from the hard data, and it has profound implications for how marketing budgets get allocated over the next three years.
Where the $200 Billion Comes From
The current retail media market sits at roughly $155 billion globally (2024 estimate). The projected compound annual growth rate through 2026 is 13.1% — and that’s likely conservative. For context: TV advertising, including both linear and connected TV, is a roughly $155–175 billion global market. Retail media’s trajectory means these two channels trade places very soon. And unlike TV, retail media is growing, not contracting.
Why Industry Estimates May Be Too Low
The most widely quoted forecasts — from GroupM and similar bodies — project retail media at roughly 8% annual growth. There are good reasons to believe this understates the opportunity by 20–30%. Trade budgets haven’t fully migrated yet: brands still spend heavily on in-store trade promotion, and as e-commerce grows, those budgets transition to digital retail media, growing the total advertising pie. The non-CPG opportunity is barely started. And Europe and emerging markets are years behind the US — when they catch up, the growth curve resteepens.
The TV Comparison Is More Than Just Numbers
When retail media overtakes TV in size, it’s a signal of where brand budgets are heading. TV commanded premium brand-building dollars because of reach and emotional resonance. Retail media is demonstrating it can do both: reach consumers at scale and drive measurable outcomes. For agencies and brands, the practical implication is clear: retail media can no longer be treated as a performance channel afterthought. It needs to be central to media strategy.